There is probably nothing in the world more desperately desired than certainty. Planning is pointless without data and the right algorithms. With all due respect to Gordon Gecko, it is misleading to call information a commodity, as quality in information and its interpreters varies.
Wall Street has repeatedly reminded us of the fragility of traditional finance. While volatility can be inviting to the adventurous, it is not welcomed by most of us, who are looking for reliable returns, not overnight riches.
We know, now more than ever, that great swathes of information, including accepted wisdom, are wrong by accident or design. Information is raw material, varying wildly in quality. It has to be refined first. While there may be several steps between collection to completion, understanding, either what happened or what is likely to happen, is the end goal.
Echoing the oracles of antiquity, analysts from medicine to sociology are seeking to simplify the complex. New AI programs are regularly making sense of what we cannot. Despite the messiness of people, economies, and societies, reliable systems can be built
HODLCommunity places a premium on predictability because of its tangible value. A bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush. It is worth more than a dozen. A system that is not built with stability in mind, is bound to fluctuate in ways that will not always benefit all of its backers.
For those who have enough cushion to ride out hard times, it is not an issue. Downswings provide opportunities to buy up assets at a discount. For the vast majority, however, these cycles only put them farther behind. Predictability goes along with the end of the zero-sum way of thinking, with the tumultuous environment that favors cut-throat competition.
Maybe too much uncertainty is inherently abhorrent to intelligent animals. Civilization has, with varying degrees of success, curbed it. While fire alarms can protect us from the unexpected, they do not prevent the unexpected from happening. We may worry that too much predictability, too many processes automated and understood by AI, will make life boring.
We may recall an episode of The Twilight Zone where a deceased gangster, to his surprise, finds himself in heaven.
He is accustomed to highs and lows and quickly becomes bored with winning — a problem many of us would be happy to have. As an attentive viewer could see coming, he did not in fact make it through the pearly gates. The misery of his predicament illustrates the other side of our relationship with circumstance: as much as we hate randomness, we are thrilled by the prospect of victory only when it is tempered by the possibility of defeat.
But most of the world would be more than content with consistent returns. The love of risk seems to go hand-in-hand with the desire to ruthlessly speculate with no concern for the consequences. Even those who feel chaos should be tamed are skeptical about our ability to make sense of it.
Making sense of the weather, economy, or the human body might seem preposterous to someone who has skimmed through a popular article on chaos theory, but this is not the case.
Consciously designing our own destinies is what sets us apart from any other known life form in the universe. However mundane it may seem to those enamored with loftier matters, high finance — and personal finance — shape us.
Increasing cooperation, both bottom-up or top-down, is one of the marks of an advanced civilization. In fact, it is one of the characteristics of higher life forms. Similarly, we have gained more control over our surroundings — though not always to everyone’s benefit. This shortcoming aside, the trend is indisputable.
HODLCommunity is harnessing algorithmic stability to bring a new epoch of abundance to crypto.